I’m a little behind the times.
NOAA issued their predictions for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season 5 days ago on 22 May. They are calling for “an above average season with 12 to 16 storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes on May 22nd.” The predictions from CSU, issued a few weeks earlier on 9 April, fall in the middle with “13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher”. Supposedly, we’ll be seeing above average seasons for some time to come, with or without human influence (eg. global warming).
[William Gray] said the Atlantic basin is in the midst of a natural active hurricane cycle that will likely last another 15 to 20 years.
While I’m in no way a storm chaser, I always find the hurricane season to be intriguing. Seeing the awesome power of Nature demolishing the Earth’s surface; it is humbling to say the least. I know that I will be glued to The Weather Channel a lot in the coming months if the season is anywhere near as active as the meteorologists are predicting.
Once the season begins on 1 June, the National Hurricane Center will have their 48-hour formation potential maps up and running. It’ll be a good place to start for keeping track of what is coming off the west coast of Africa.
So far everything has been quiet, with no named storms yet. Six of the last eight years have had the first named storm before the beginning of the season or within the first 10 days of the season. With the predictions sitting right around those made for the 2005 season, does anyone think we may, in reality, see another 26+ named storm year, or are you thinking that NOAA and CSU know what they’re talking about?
